ScenarioAUG 2026 → FEB 2027 · 6 MO
Scenario — summer home-leave wave
PRECOMPUTED AT RUN START · SWAP INSTANTThe wave overlays leave ×1.5 in JUN–SEP · attrition ×1.75 across the horizon. Both scenarios are computed from the same snapshot and held warmed in memory; the screens swap materialized results — nothing recomputes on click. Recompute is the skeptic’s button: it re-runs the engine and the run numbers below tick up.
Shortfall · baseline
398.2
10.5% of quota
Shortfall · leave wave
532.1
Δ +133.9 vs baseline · 14.0% of quota
Cover cost · wave
QAR 954k
Δ +QAR 233k vs baseline
Contracts at risk · wave
8
Δ +5 vs baseline · 7 watching
Cells and table rows reported at SEP 2026, the first full month in the horizon — the chart reads all six · shortfall never nets · cover cost priced at the line’s average on-roll wage
Portfolio shortfall by month · baseline vs wave
Baseline shortfallLeave-wave shortfall
The wave cuts deepest in FEB — 692.6 heads short against 506.9 at baseline (Δ +185.8). Extra cover over the window ≈ QAR 1.68M.
Most exposed under the wave · SEP 2026 · top 6 of 15
| Al Wisam Sports Academy | 58 | 83 | +25 | 43,122 | Open under wave → |
| Safwa Corporate Tower | 37.8 | 52.8 | +15.1 | 25,425 | Open under wave → |
| Jisr Financial Centre | 26 | 37.1 | +11.1 | 18,409 | Open under wave → |
| Reem Exhibition Centre | 25 | 36 | +11 | 20,204 | Open under wave → |
| Muntazah Gardens Compound | 42 | 52 | +10 | 19,614 | Open under wave → |
| Bayt Al Noor Compound | 20 | 29.5 | +9.5 | 16,256 | Open under wave → |